PREDICTIONS FOR UFC 146 DOS SANTOS VS MIR
Tomorrow night will be the first ever all heavyweight card in UFC history. UFC 146 is set to be an exciting evening of really big guys knocking the snot out of each other, the possibility of seeing every fight end via knockout is a very real possibility. There have been quite a few changes to this card (Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt bowing out of competition) but its still gonna be a fantastic night of fights.
We over here at BRS decided we’d put together our predictions for the main card, since we are so well versed in the sport of MMA. Our predictions you can take to the bank. HERE WE GO!
Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
This is the first fight to open the main card of the PPV.
Stefan Struve is the tallest fighter in the entire UFC roster, hence the nickname “Skyscraper” and his ooponent is UFC newcomer, and late replacement for Mark Hunt, Lavar Johnson who had been fighting in Strikeforce.
We’ve said this once before and we’ll say it again, DON’T EVER COUNT OUT STEFAN STRUVE!!! Still relatively young in the sport (24 years old) Skyscraper gets into a brawl almost consistently in each of his fights since being in the UFC and each time he gets into a slugfest it looks like he’s on the brink of being finished, and then he pounces back in a big way! Struve has some of the best comebacks i have ever seen and it all comes down to his heart and how hungry he is to win.
Lavar Johnson in his first fight into the UFC TKO’d Pat Barry, but then again who hasn’t? So far what i’ve seen of Johnson is a very very pedestrian stand up game, sure his got big power but so did Kimbo Slice and he’s no longer in the UFC. If Johnson had actually KO’d Barry then maybe i’d be considering his stand up threatening for someone like Struve but ultimately it seemed more like Barry gave up.
Everyone’s gunning for Lavar to take this but if he cant KO Struve he’s gonna get frustrated and might leave an opening, and Struve will capitalize.
Prediction: Struve 2nd round TKO
In the second fight of the PPV portion, UFC newcomer Shane del Rosario takes on Stipe Miocic.
Shane del Rosario was once considered one of the best young heavyweights in the sport. He’s a dynamic striker and has above-average submissions off his back.
Unfortunately, he’s spent a large portion of his career on the sidelines injured, which segues nicely into talking about his latest injury that saw him sidelined for over a year. The biggest issue for him heading into this fight is that he’s going to have a ton of ring rust.
Stipe Miocic is one of the blue-chip fighters that the UFC has signed in the recent years. He’s a former golden gloves champion and an NCAA D1 All-American. He has solid boxing and his wrestling is above average. He tends to get thrown off his game pretty often and has to rely on his wrestling to get out of bad situations. He also has a questionable gas tank, as seen in his fight with Joey Beltran.
This fight will be a solid test for both fighters. Miocic has never faced someone of Del Rosario’s caliber, so it will be a good way to figure out how far he has come in his development. On the flip side, Del Rosario is coming off really serious injury and may not be in the best shape.
Prediction: Shane del Rosario finishes Stipe Miocic in the second round with punches.
Roy Nelson vs Dave Herman
Roy Nelson (16-7) has been fighting nothing but top competition since being introduced into the UFC heavyweight division. Nelson won The Ultimate Fighter season 10 competition by knocking out Brendan Schaub, he battled to a decision against current heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos, contender Fabricio Werdum and number one contender Frank Mir. Despite losing against these 3 opponents they’re right on top of the heap at 260 pound/117 kilogram division.
He’s beaten Kimbo Slice, Mirko Filipović, Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve.
Nelson has very heavy hands and a black belt in jujitsu under Renzo Gracie. And Roy Nelson can take a punch, he has arguably the best chin in all of MMA, he took dos Santos’ best shots and still stood standing no one else can say the same.
But Dave Herman(21-3) has a very weird stand up came as well and is very dangerous if hes still on his feet. We saw him take out John-Olav Einemo after getting hit with some of Einemo’s best shots. His ground game is a bit questionable since he leaves his guard very open and someone with slick top control could easily mount and pound him, get him to turn and take his back but that all comes down to how much Herman has trained off his back and whether he can defend someone attacking him on the mat.
This is a pick em fight, both guys like to stand and bang but if it goes to the ground Herman is in big trouble.
PREDICTION: Nelson TKO in the third
Co-Main Even Time
Cain Velasquez vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva
Cain Velasquez (9-1) is the former Heavyweight champion, and a very very well rounded fighter but this fight is a very important one for him because he needs to reassure his fans that he is still the same fighter he was before he lost his title.
Velasquez lost his title in just over 60 seconds of the first round via vicious knockout to dos Santos at UFC on FOX before then he was unbeaten and clearing the roster of all other contenders. He has beaten some top competition in the likes of Minotauro Noguiera, Brock Lesnar, Cheick Kongo, Ben Rothwell. He has fantastic well rounded stand up game, excellent cardio and very good wrestling.
Antonio Silva(16-3) though is a BEAST. Silva is a huuuuuuge heavyweight standing at 6 foot 4 and tipping the scales at 260 pounds/ 117 kilos. He’s got great stand up, good ground and pound and a very good ground game. Above all of that he is only 1 of three people to legitimately stop the great Fedor Emelianenko, if that doesn’t mean anything to you then you must be new to MMA.
This is a tough one to call since both of these are excellent and the proof is really in the pudding. But i think Cain will have the better wrestling and take it all the way.
PREDICTION: Velasquez via 3 round decision
MAIN EVEN TIME
The only reason Frank Mir (16-5) is even in this fight is because Allistair Overeem was caught with waaaay tooo much elevated testosterone levels. And this fight has some bad blood seeing as how Mir defeated Noguiera, Junior’s head coach, in very devastating fashion.
That being said. Mir is no slouch he is one of the most successful heavyweights in UFC history, a former two-time heavyweight champ, he has the absolute best Brazilian Jujitsu in the entire division (that was proven after he broke Nogueira’s arm at UFC 140). But his stand up is very very suspect and his chin is even more questionable. Its no secret, Mir has done very badly against guys who hit hard but where he’s been successful is when the fight goes down to the ground and for any opponent to overlook that aspect in Mir’s game is very stupid.
But he is fighting Junior “Cigano” dos Santos(14-1), a destroyer, a beast, undefeated in the UFC. Junior possesses the best hands in all of MMA by far, he has ran through all his competition since joining the best fight promotion on the planet. Almost all his wins have come by way of KO with exception of Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin, two guys who could get hit with wrecking balls and they’d still be standing. He’s got a brown belt under the Noguiera brothers and is very good off his back according to guys close to him but we’ve never seen cos he has never needed to use his jujitsu ever in a fight, HIS HANDS ARE JUST THAT GOOD.
The meteorites that Junior calls hands is what any heavyweight has to be very fearful of. Having been labelled a one dimensional fighter make no mistake its only because he’s never needed to use any other weapons in his arsenal.
All fights start standing, and thats really bad news for Frank.
PREDICTION: Junior by 1st round KO
if you haven’t seen Junior’s hands can do here’s a taste http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGOVLNwNnOY
- Shane Del Rosario Wants To Be ‘A Force’ In UFC, And Soon (bayarea.sbnation.com)
- UFC 146 Preview and Breakdown (mmathinktank.com)
- UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir Live Streaming Pre-Fight Press Conference (bleacherreport.com)
- UFC 146: Predictions You Can Take to the Bank (bleacherreport.com)